Does John McCain Even Matter?

Over the course of the past week I have come to the decision that John McCain is not especially relevant. The coming election will be Obama versus the Republican Party and the traditional Media. McCain is more of a stand in than anything else. I know that sounds somewhat strange and many might disagree but I feel that he will not be the determining factor for this election.

I base my analysis on several things. The first of which is that McCain is not a strong candidate. He has many serious problems and serious flaws. He cannot give an interview without tripping over himself. He routinely gives answers that are nonsensical or contradictory to statements he has made in the past. People who actually listen to McCain cannot help but feel underwhelmed or somewhat confused by him. For example in his recent interview with George Stephanopoulos he admitted seeking the Hagee endorsement was a mistake yet also stated he was glad to have it. He was glad he made the mistake.

McCain also makes numerous gaffes while campaigning. The other day he sat and listened to the story of a boy who received a surgery for a cleft palette and was having trouble paying for post op. McCain’s own healthcare plan would have prevented the kid from having the surgery in the first place. These types of stories are common for McCain. He gives speeches about the success of free trade in front of broken down closed factories. He hangs out in hospitals paid for by earmarks he rails against. He gives a speech in Selma Alabama on the civil rights marches attended almost exclusively by white people.

He is on the wrong side of the war. People do not like the war. People want the war to end. McCain wants the war to continue and has no idea how to get to the version of victory he has described. The DNC ad that uses his 100 years comment will be run over and over again before the election. McCain is tied to bush on the war and any other defense or foreign policy issues. He offered his pathetic "alternative" to the new GI Bill designed to prevent it getting too good for troops. His rationale? Well we cannot let veterans have it too good or else people will not want to stay in the military. McCain is on the wrong side of so many issues and will not separate from them.

Another strike against McCain is he cannot raise money. I recently wrote on just how bad he is at raising money. Obama has raised 240 million plus to McCain’s 81 million. Only 23% of that has come in donations under $200. Obama has raised more money in under $200 donations than McCain has raised in general. McCain also has about a fourth of the money on hand as Obama and has had a greater burn rate than Obama despite running unopposed for the last two months. He is reliant on bundlers and lobbyists and has also shown no capacity for internet fund raising. This means he will not be able to expand the electoral map the way Obama wants to. He will have to spend more on defense leaving less to target potential pick ups.

He is old. Right or not his age is an issue. America is a youth centric culture and we do not have the type of reverence for elders that exists in other cultures. McCain has tried to do some reassuring that his age is not a potential risk but people have that in their mind and cannot help but see it when they look at him.

The biggest factor that eliminates John McCain the actual candidate and man as a concern is the state of the country. The economy is in the tank and the Republican Party that has been in power for the past decade is becoming more and more unpopular. The president is incredibly unpopular. This might very well be a more retrospective election where the people punish the Republican Party for being such a failure.  We have many problems and the Republicans have failed to deal with any of them in a meaningful manner. The election will be as referendum on them as a whole more than on McCain.

McCain is not in a position of strength and everyone knows it. The focus has been on the Democrats and they are the expected front-runners. That means that people will decide to vote for them as long as the nominee is acceptable. That means that as long as Obama comes out of the primary process looking like a legitimate candidate the election season will continue to be about him. Everything is about him and he will continue to be the reference point as the election continues. As he passes whatever test people have to determine that he is at least basically capable he will gain strength. People do not want more Bush and that is what McCain will represent.

Part of what determines the tests that Obama will face will be the traditional media coverage. Their default position for McCain is positive. McCain is not the flash point for this election because he is not in the position of strength as he is not new. Obama is the rock-star. He is the media reference point and portrayed as the front-runner even as McCain is portrayed as positively as the person running behind. It becomes Obama versus the Media as they try and make the race closer regardless of what McCain does. The central point here is that McCain’s actual actions are not relevant. His actual actions as I portrayed above are not good. This means that the media is where the election will be driven and that makes McCain irrelevant because the media will do what it wants.

The media will also be central because McCain has no money. He has already come out and said he will be relying on the free media. He is abdicating more control over the out come because of his lack of money. In addition, he is choosing to stick with a definition of himself that people already know. He has relinquished control over his image to the already established views in hope of preserving the "patriotic maverick" id.  The more aspects of control he gives up the less important and relevant he becomes. He cannot choose the battleground and he cannot control the media message nor can he control perceptions of his party identification. He is a passenger being carried in the election waiting to see what Obama does.

In contrast Obama has the chance to be proactive to McCain’s reactive. He has the money and he has the general momentum of the Democratic Party behind him. He still has questions to answer and that provides an opportunity to define himself in a positive manner. He can be new and exciting and different just like people love. If he does this with enough success, the general hatred of Bush and the war will be enough. If he can win the media battle he will beat McCain because that is all that McCain has going for him and that is not something he controls.

I hope I made my point or at least provided something worth reading. I also recommend checking out the Obama Humiliates McCain fund raising diary. It has pretty graphs. All comments and recs are welcome.